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Ex-MI5 head: UK possibly at war with Russia

Is the UK Already at War with Russia? Understanding the ‘Grey War’ Threat

A stark warning from a former head of MI5 suggests that the United Kingdom may already be engaged in a form of warfare with Russia, one that doesn’t involve traditional battlefields or declared hostilities. This ongoing conflict is being waged in the shadows, through cyberspace, disinformation campaigns, and covert operations. This is the reality of the “grey war”—a persistent, undeclared struggle that impacts national security, economic stability, and the very fabric of our democracy.

The assertion is that the UK is arguably in a state of ‘grey war’ with Russia, a conflict defined by hostile actions that fall just short of triggering a conventional military response. Understanding this modern form of aggression is the first step toward building a resilient defense.

Defining the ‘Grey War’

Unlike traditional warfare, a grey war is a protracted conflict fought across multiple domains simultaneously. The goal isn’t to capture territory with tanks and soldiers, but to destabilize an adversary from within, erode its institutions, and gain strategic advantages without firing a single shot in a conventional sense.

The primary weapons in this conflict include:

  • Cyberattacks: Targeting government networks, critical infrastructure, and private industry.
  • Disinformation: Spreading false or misleading narratives to sow social division and undermine trust in democratic processes.
  • Espionage: Classic intelligence gathering and covert operations on foreign soil.
  • Economic Coercion: Using economic leverage to pressure and influence policy.
  • Political Interference: Covertly influencing elections and supporting disruptive political movements.

This strategy allows hostile states to pursue their objectives while maintaining plausible deniability, making a direct and proportional response difficult.

The Front Lines of a 21st-Century Conflict

The evidence of this grey war is not found in televised battles but in subtle, persistent attacks on the UK’s core systems. These are not isolated incidents but part of a broader, coordinated strategy designed to weaken the nation.

1. State-Sponsored Cyberattacks
The most visible front is in the digital realm. Intelligence agencies have repeatedly pointed to state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting critical national infrastructure, including energy grids, financial systems, and healthcare services. These incursions are not just about stealing data; they are about probing for weaknesses and establishing a foothold that could be exploited to cause massive disruption in a future crisis. For businesses and public sector organizations, the threat of ransomware and data breaches has become a constant operational risk.

2. The War on Truth: Disinformation and Propaganda
Another key battleground is the information space. The strategic use of disinformation aims to undermine democratic processes and erode public trust in institutions like the government, the media, and the electoral system. By amplifying divisive content on social media and promoting conspiracy theories, hostile actors can inflame social tensions and make it harder for society to find common ground. This erodes the national cohesion necessary to respond effectively to threats.

3. Brazen Espionage and Covert Operations
High-profile incidents, such as the Salisbury poisonings, demonstrate a willingness to conduct aggressive intelligence operations on UK soil. These actions are not just attacks on individuals; they are calculated messages of power intended to intimidate and show a disregard for international law. These events confirm that the threat is not just digital but also physical.

What This Means for UK Businesses and Citizens

This modern conflict is not just a matter for spies and government officials. The pervasive nature of the grey war means it has direct implications for everyone.

Actionable Security Tips for Businesses:

  • Prioritize Cybersecurity: Implementing robust cybersecurity measures is no longer optional; it’s essential for survival. This includes multi-factor authentication, regular security audits, and employee training on phishing and social engineering.
  • Develop an Incident Response Plan: Assume a breach will happen. Having a clear plan for how to respond can significantly limit the financial and reputational damage of a cyberattack.
  • Vet Your Supply Chain: Hostile actors often target smaller, less secure companies in a supply chain to gain access to a larger, primary target. Understand the security posture of your partners.

Actionable Advice for Individuals:

  • Practice Digital Hygiene: Use strong, unique passwords for different accounts and be cautious about the personal information you share online.
  • Cultivate Digital Literacy: Be a critical consumer of information. Before sharing a shocking headline or story, take a moment to verify the source and check for corroborating reports from reputable outlets.
  • Recognize and Report Phishing: Learn the signs of phishing emails and text messages, which are common tools used to steal credentials and install malware.

Ultimately, the warning from the intelligence community is clear: the nature of international conflict has evolved. The UK is facing a persistent and multifaceted threat that requires a whole-of-society approach to defense. In the grey war, awareness is the first and most critical line of defense.

Source: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2025/09/29/uk_russia_cyber_war/

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